eustellab01: Abbreviated Pundit Round-up

Tuesday 19 April 2011

Abbreviated Pundit Round-up

Visual source: Newseum

WaPo poll on economic anxiety:

In hypothetical matchups for the general election, the president runs ahead of all seven potential GOP rivals tested in the new poll.
If the election were held now, Romney and Huckabee would mount the stiffest challenges, trailing Obama by four and six percentage points respectively, among all Americans as well as among registered voters.

Obama has double-digit leads over the other five tested ? a dozen points against Trump and Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.), 15 against Newt Gingrich and former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty and 17 points over Palin.

Despite his current advantage over the Republican field, Obama remains vulnerable with an approval rating again less than 50 percent. A majority of those younger than 40 give the president positive ratings, but most of those 40 and older disapprove.

Obama?s standing shows he has lost his post-midterm election gains. His 54 percent rating in January followed a well-received speech at a memorial service for the victims of the Tucson shootings, and came after a lame-duck congressional session during which he scored a series of legislative achievements.

Room for Debate:

What does the S.&P. move say about the economy and deficit fears? Or is it, as Obama administration officials contend, largely a political judgment that doesn't go beyond what we know?

Above link includes (among others) Tyler Cowan, Mark Thoma and Barry Ritholz:

Many people misunderstand the U.S. deficit. First, it is stimulative to both the economy and the markets. Look at what happened under Reagan and Obama and most of Bush II ? the economy recovered from recession and the markets rose along with the deficit.
Second, Social Security is fine. Sure, the retirement age will go higher, there will be means testing, and the income cutoff for contributions ($106,000) will likely double. But it will remain solvent. Medicare is much trickier, as the United States pays two times what most countries pay for health care but gets lesser care.

The current debate about deficits looks like more politics.

Eugene Robinson:

It?s time to take Donald Trump seriously as a presidential candidate.
Three, two, one .?.?. okay, time?s up.

Greg Dworkin (that's me):

Just how seriously should Donald Trump be taken? As seriously as possible for as long as possible. And after he finishes putting one over on the credulous media (or quits because of yet another bankruptcy or worse-than-usual gaffe), you can return to covering Michele Bachmann and the fading Sarah Palin. Unserious as these three candidates are, they are tea party favorites and will always draw a crowd of the know-nothing side of the GOP (alas, ever larger.) It?s important to highlight them so the rest of the country will know what (a large part of) the GOP energy and money comes from ? anti-evolution, anti-immigration birther Wackoville (just a few miles to the right of Crazy Town.)
Will that interfere with Republican establishment candidates (the Very Serious People) like Tim Pawlenty, Mitch Daniels and Mitt Romney? Well, that?s up to them to deal with it. They haven?t done so successfully so far, but the onus is on them.

Stephen Stromberg:

But neither the Democratic nor the Republican vision recently articulated is likely to result in the sort of reform needed to fix America's finances in a way that achieves anything but basic solvency, if that. Nor is either party likely to get its way after 2012, anyway. Barring some truly massive electoral landslide or Matt Miller?s third-party groundswell, Republicans will still hate tax hikes, Democrats will still hate entitlement cuts, and the filibuster-era Senate will still be the filibuster-era Senate.
The Gang of Six?s plan might not be perfect. But openness to compromise is critical. For anything big to happen, both parties will probably have to betray some of their most powerful instincts, even after 2012.

Derrick Z. Jackson: