Public Policy Polling (PDF) (5/12-15, Washington voters, no trendlines):
Jay Inslee (D): 38
Rob McKenna (R): 40
Undecided: 22Jay Inslee (D): 42
Dave Reichert (R): 36
Undecided: 22Chris Gregoire (D-inc): 40
Rob McKenna (R): 49
Undecided: 11Chris Gregoire (D-inc): 45
Dave Reichert (R): 41
Undecided: 14
(MoE: �3.0%)
The likeliest matchup for the 2012 Washington governor's race, between Democratic Rep. Jay Inslee and Republican AG Rob McKenna, looks to be pure tossup. Inslee trails McKenna by 2 according to PPP, but that's a factor, partly, of name rec: McKenna, known statewide, is better known than Inslee, who represents 1/9 of the state (Inslee has 30/21 favorables, with 49% not sure, while McKenna has 34/26 favorables, with 40% not sure). McKenna is still up among "independents" (quotes used because there's no party registration in Washington) 41-30, and has 79% of Republicans behind him while Inslee has 68% of Democrats behind him. That doesn't mean that Dems are crossing the aisle to opt for McKenna, though; they're simply more undecided, and assuming that they come home to Inslee as they find out more about him, Inslee can make up that last few percents. 23% of Democrats are undecided, while only 13% of Republicans are (which may be the key number to take away from this whole poll).
If you knew nothing about Washington other the fact that it's been reliably blue at the presidential level and has had Democratic governors for decades, you might be surprised by these numbers. McKenna, however, is one of a rare and dwindling breed: a moderate Republican from the suburbs of King County. He's managed to remain popular by focusing most of his efforts on things that nobody likes, like spam and meth. Still, he engaged in one major act of foot-shooting that will presumably be a potent way for Inslee, once the race is engaged, to get those Democrats to come home: perhaps worried about warding off a primary from the right, he signed on to the multi-state GOP AG lawsuit spearheaded by Virginia's Ken Cuccinelli, one of the few blue-state AGs to risk doing so.
These are better numbers for Inslee than the ones recently released by SurveyUSA, who found him trailing McKenna 48-41 in April. SurveyUSA did also pick up that McKenna seems to overperform Rep. Dave Reichert (who occasionally expresses some interest in the race, but isn't expected to run) by 6 or so points, but they find a more conservative sample than PPP, consistent with their usual trend of skewing a bit more conservative than actual results in Washington. (Interestingly, SurveyUSA has tried to compensate for this problem in Washington by incorporating a live-caller overlay to reach cellphone users, a particularly large problem in tech-savvy Washington... while, at the same time, PPP is still entirely robo-calling. Nevertheless, PPP's sample reports voting 53-39 for Barack Obama in 2008, close to, if a touch redder, than the actual 57-40 result.) PPP did poll the governor's race back in July of 2010, but only matched up McKenna with Lisa Brown, the state Senate majority leader who, in 2010, was often rumored to be interested in the gubernatorial race but lately has been associated with Lt. Governor instead; McKenna won 47-29 against the deeply unknown Brown.
You may have noticed that I haven't said anything about incumbent Dem Chris Gregoire, who is, by law, entitled to run for a third term, and who hasn't explicitly ruled it out. There is basically zero chance that she runs again: running for a third term just isn't done in Washington (no one has tried it since the 1970s), and if she did, she'd probably face a strong Democratic challenger, not so much on ideological grounds as simply "hey, get out of my way; it's my turn." Given that she's sporting a 38/48 job approval, even without the unspoken no-third-terms rule, she would still be vulnerable not only to a serious Republican (as seen by her wider losing margin against McKenna) but to another Dem, so a repeat performance from her would be highly unexpected.
Public Policy Polling (PDF) (5/12-15, Washington voters, 7/27/2010-8/1/2010 in parens):
Maria Cantwell (D-inc): 53
Dino Rossi (R): 40
Undecided: 8Maria Cantwell (D-inc): 49 (47)
Dave Reichert (R): 35 (41)
Undecided: 16 (12)Maria Cantwell (D-inc): 50 (49)
Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R): 31 (37)
Undecided: 19 (13)Maria Cantwell (D-inc): 51
Clint Didier (R): 35
Undecided: 13Maria Cantwell (D-inc): 49
Susan Hutchison (R): 35
Undecided: 16
(MoE: �3.0%)
You might have forgotten that there's also a Senate race in Washington next year. Well, you wouldn't be alone; it will get only a fraction of the hype, as Republicans look like they'll be unlikely to field a top-tier contender here, and most of their efforts will be directed toward their best chance in decades of winning the governor's mansion. Maria Cantwell looks like she's in fine shape here, with a 50/38 approval rating and double-digit leads over her best possible opponents. (Her approvals last July were 46/38, and her leads were narrower, so she seems to have benefited a bit from the improved national climate for Dems.)
Cantwell's closest opponent is widely-known perennial candidate Dino Rossi, but he's saddled with 37/52 favorables, and he appears to have used up his third strike in 2010, ending his political future. Reichert, who'll probably get a friendlier district out of redistricting, and McMorris Rodgers, who's climbing the GOP leadership ladder, are very unlikely candidates. Didier (a former NFL star who carried the tea party flag in the 2010 Senate primary) and Hutchison (a former news anchor who lost, but performed credibly in, the 2009 King County Executive race) are somewhat likelier, but I suspect the eventual GOP candidate will wind up being some random rich person we haven't even heard of yet, who can self-fund his own journey to oblivion.
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