eustellab01: FL-Sen: Improvement for Nelson

Saturday, 2 April 2011

FL-Sen: Improvement for Nelson

Sen. Bill Nelson (D) in his astronaut days

Public Policy Polling (PDF) (3/24-27, Florida voters, Dec. 2010 in parens):

Bill Nelson (D-inc): 50 (44)
Mike Haridopolos (R): 34 (32)
Undecided: 17 (24)
Bill Nelson (D-inc): 48 (46)
Adam Hasner (R): 32 (30)
Undecided: 20 (25)

Bill Nelson (D-inc): 48 (47)
George LeMieux (R): 33 (36)
Undecided: 19 (17)

Bill Nelson (D-inc): 47 (44)
Connie Mack IV (R): 34 (36)
Undecided: 18 (20)

Bill Nelson (D-inc): 45
Joe Scarborough (R): 32
Undecided: 22

Bill Nelson (D-inc): 47
Jimmy Wales (R): 28
Undecided: 25
^{(MoE: �4.4%)}

At least three names tested here are almost certainly out of consideration. Mack as you know said last week that he wouldn't run. The NRSC dumped all over Scarborough a few weeks ago after he revealed they'd been recruiting him; the hostility level there soared to "Ernie" almost overnight. And Jimmy Wales is just some libertarian fantasy candidate - he's the founder of Wikipedia and has plenty of baggage of his own. (Long before Wikipedia, he created the porny site Bomis, and in later years tried to whitewash references to it from his own Wikipedia profile!)

That leave the bumbling Haridopolos, the would-be teabagger fave Hasner, and the one-time Charlie Crist acolyte LeMieux. I'm not writing any of these guys off, but it's not a terribly inspiring field (which explains why John Cornyn was chatting up Joe Scar). I wouldn't be surprised at all if another big name got in, whether we're talking some random rich dude ala Rick Scott, or Rep. Vern Buchanan (who is himself also a rich dude). Bill Nelson got absurdly lucky in 2006 when he faced Katherine Harris; he won't be that fortunate again, but he may still benefit from a weakish field.

Anyhow, to the numbers. As Tom notes, Nelson's scores with members of his own party are kinda low:

38% of voters approve of the job Nelson's doing to 34% who disapprove. Those numbers sound uninspiring but the main reason for them is that only 55% of Democrats approve of the job he's doing, where you'd usually expect someone to be in the 70-80% range within their own party. Nelson gets 74-80% of the Democratic vote against each of the Republicans we tested him against so this is a classic case where his base might not love him, but they're still going to vote for him.

I agree: I think these folks will come home for Nelson, especially with Obama at the top of the ticket. Tom makes another good point:

Most of the time people focus on politicians' approval number when analyzing their reelection chances and if you do that in Nelson's case 38% doesn't look so hot. I think it might be more instructive here though to look at Nelson's disapproval number - is someone who only 34% of voters are unhappy with really going to get tossed out of office? Seems doubtful - certainly didn't happen to any Senators or Governors last year.

Not loved, but not hated. That might just be good enough for 2012.